Will the King Dollar finally lose its status as
the world’s reserve currency and what would be the catalyst for such a scenario
to happen? This is the question that is being considered with dread in the financial
markets around the world as the financial markets would simply go into turmoil creating
all sorts of consequences for the world.
Getting the dollar knocked off its perch as the world’s reserve currency would also bring ruination to the US economy. Future successive administrations would be faced with a herculean task to pull the economy out of its trouble and recover its number one position. A loss of something - like credibility – is very difficult to recover.
By using the dollar and the threats of sanctions, the US has managed to somehow to weather the challenges to dollar’s status as a reserve currency, but as the law of nature dictates, nothing lasts forever. The dollar’s run as world reserve currency was bound to come to an end someday.
Even though there is a growing anger among the world community about the use of the dollar as a soft weapon by the US, the dollar has survived due to lack of alternatives. But unfolding global chaos might have just put the dollar on the fast track to its loss of status.
Growing numbers of countries are tired of constant bullying and threats of sanctions, are on the lookout for some other mechanism that would free them not only from the shackle of the US dollar but also maintain their sovereignty.
Here the new political block BRICS comes into focus which has the ability to take transact nearly 40% trade not in dollars but in the national currencies of the respective countries.
Donald Trump is becoming aware of this fact and if the dollar loses its status as the reserve currency; he will go down as the “worst president” in US history.
Hence, his crazed rants on that pathetic social platform threatening BRICS countries with tariffs.
There are four factors that would hasten the demise of dollar as the reserve currency – The BRICS Group, Big Beautiful Bill, Growing anxiety about Trade Wars, and finally, the elephant in the room – The Epstein Files.
Consider the first factor: The BRICS group and what it offers
The recent summit in Brazil was a kind of momentous gathering as 10 new countries have been granted partner status bringing the total to 20.
At this summit, the group adopted the following points:
ü
Commitment to strength
internal cooperation under the expanded BRICS framework
ü
Commitment to strengthen
multilateralism – e.g. multi-polarity.
ü Strengthening UN charter, and
the international law
ü
Increased participation of
developing countries in global decision making
ü Strengthening the Global governance
of artificial intelligence (AI for the benefit of humanity), called upon the UN
to take a lead position in devising rules for AI.
ü
Expanded the BRICS grouping
by accepting 10 new countries as partner states
ü
And, committed to boost trade
in global south
With BRICS PAY, New development Bank and the desire to settle trade among member countries in their own national currencies, are a threat to dollar’s dominance as it reduces the need for dollar in trade among themselves – in effect, de-dollarization.
The second factor as a threat to the dollar’s dominance is the recently passed Big Beautiful Bill which Donald Trump has signed into law.
The bill not only makes the life of US citizens miserable – cuts to Medicaid, SNAP benefits, education etc., it also explodes the budget deficit by 4 trillion, which means that the US will be paying more than 1 trillion just as the interest payment – a red flag for the foreign investors.
In order to attract foreign investors, the Federal Reserve would have to offer higher interest on US treasuries. The increase in the interest rates would affect everything – from mortgage rates to, corporate profits etc..
Here are the lowlights of the bill:
Ø
Major cuts to social safety
net that includes Medicaid. As congressional budget office estimates,
approximately 1.8 million people will lose access to health benefit, a major
crisis.
Ø
Cutting SNAP (supplemental
assistance food program), a critical food program that helped nearly 41 million
people with food assistance. Inability to feed the family is bound to increase
crime and domestic violence.
Ø
Removed tax subsidies for
clean energy project that jeopardized thousands of jobs and endangered billions
of dollars of investment
Ø
Higher energy costs for
families
Ø
Endangered environment by
weakening fuel efficiency standards.
Ø
Increased funding for ICE.
Ø
AND, the biggest one – blow
up the budget deficit by 4 trillion, increasing the debt to an unmanageable
level.
The third factor that poses the risk to the dollar’s dominance is the chaotic Trade Wars.
The on-again, off-again tariffs are causing anxiety among the businesspeople, the result being a reduction in economic activity. The tariff is nothing but a tax which is ultimately paid by consumers by way of higher prices. This is going to make many people frugal, making them put-off purchases.
The depressing demand would result in job losses and, consequently, affect the GDP as well.
The lackluster GDP is, then, a signal to investors that it is time to look for some other greener pastures and that pasture is being provided by BRICS grouping.
With a population base of approx. 34.45 billion people, highly skilled workforce, technological powerhouses and richness of natural resources, the growth potential for BRICS grouping of countries is tremendous.
Consider these statistics: With GDP higher than that of G7 Counters – 44 % and 4.45 billion population, the outlook is tempting.
Even though the factor of BRICS grouping and continued de-dollarization is a fait accompli, the hard landing can still be turned into a soft one, but only if cooler, rational and saner heads prevail, but there is a dearth of these virtues in Washington, DC.
All these three factors combined have put the king dollar on the slide to its eventual dethroning as the world reserve currency,
But there is one factor that can give it a hypersonic boost.
And, that factor – fourth factor - is “Epstein files”.
It all started off with Elon Musk tweeting about Donald Trump being in the Epstein files. With the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ cutting out subsidies for EV vehicles, a furious Musk, who was already out of government, fought tooth and nail to prevent its passage.
Having failed in the fight, an enraged Musk fired the tweet which set the course of events on an uncontrollable path.
The matter would have simply faded from the public consciousness when Elon Musk backtracked on his tweet and made good with Donald trump. The issue was slowly fading from public consciousness as other events occupied the news cycle.
But it was AG Pam Bondi, who, out of nowhere, decided to bring the issue of Epstein files to the forefront when she announced that there is no Epstein list.
Why she dredged up the Epstein files, is a mystery. Just speculating – Might it have to do something with Nobel Prize as a clean character is needed.
This assertion not only threw up lot of questions regarding Epstein’s suicide in jail and Ghislaine Maxwell’s conviction in a sex trafficking trial, but it also enraged the MAGA crowd, who for years were fed the notion of there being Epstein’s black book which has the list of all the rich and powerful pedophiles.
Trump’s election had given MAGA crowd high hopes of the Epstein list finally being made public, but those hopes were dashed with Pam Bondi’s assertion of there being no Epstein list.
Pam Bondi’s assertion was seen as an attempt to coverup the scandal – a way to protect the rich and powerful, a deep state tactic that they had decried for years.
With MAGA crowd openly quitting the movement, burning their hats and people like Alex Jones, Nick Fuentes, Tucker Carlson etc., criticizing Donald and asking for the release of Epstein files, the pressure has begun to get to Donald Trump.
Trump cannot afford to lose his base, but he also cannot make all the Epstein evidence public as demanded by everyone including congress members, as making the evidence public would simply be the end of Trump’s political career.
With the bombshell revelation in the Wall Street Journal of a bawdy letter from Trump to Epstein on Epstein’s 50th birthday, the fire lit by Pam Bondi has now become a raging inferno about to consume the Trump presidency and along with that the republican party, who cannot afford to lose the MAGA base which is their ticket to power.
Donald has thrown the kitchen sink to distract the American people from the Epstein scandal.
He has:
- ·
Threatened BRICs with 100%
tariff if they move away from dollars.
- ·
Threatened 500% tariff on
India and China if they continue to buy oil and gas from Russia.
- ·
In a silly tweet, he crowed
that he has demanded that Coca-Cola use cane sugar in its drinks
- ·
He has imposed 25% tariff on
Japan – America’s closest ally in the pacific.
- ·
Sent idiotic letters to
countries informing them about imposing tariffs if they don’t negotiate a trade
deal within the unilateral deadline set by him.
- ·
Imposed 50% tariff on Brazil
and demanded that Brazil drop the prosecution of its former president, Jair
Bolsonaro, who has been accused of plotting a coup to reverse his election loss
– a lot like January 6 storming of the Capitol Hill by Trump supporters.
- · Revoked visa of Brazilian Supreme
Court judge for daring to preside over Bolsonaro’s trial.
- ·
Posted crazy video on his
pathetic “Truth Social” platform about putting Obama in prison.
- ·
And, has mulled about
replacing the Fed Chair Jerome Powell with a pliant one who will reduce the
interest rates, which Jerome Powell has refused to do in the face of rising
inflation.
The list of daily outrages just keeps on growing as Donald needs something to distract from the raging Epstein files scandal – not that anything is working. On the contrary, the focus on Epstein scandal is becoming stronger as American public demands to know who exactly is featured in the list, so that they can be prosecuted for crimes against children.
Rumor on the internet is that the bombshell revelation by Wall Street Journal is just the tip of the iceberg – there is more yet to come.
With August 1 deadline fast approaching, it is difficult to imagine that the 90-day pause will be extended further as it would not only take the issue of tariffs off the table but would also reinforce Trump’s reputation as “President TACO”.
And, Donald Trump simply cannot afford that.
With Trump imposing tariffs on countries, the other countries are also bound to react and impose reciprocal tariffs on US products making them more expensive to import.
The global community will also strike deals
with other countries side-stepping the US completely. This will have massive
effect on the US economy, driving it into recession by the end of year.
Under such circumstances, The BRICS grouping will begin to look more and more attractive to foreign investors. That will be a death-knell for dollar-based US assets.
The US treasury guarantees that all its debt
obligations will be fulfilled by the “full faith and credit of the United
States government” - means that the U.S. Treasury guarantees the repayment of a
debt, using its taxing and borrowing authority if necessary.
Given the exploding budget deficit along with rising interest costs and credit rating agencies knocking US credit rating a notch down from its perfect triple AAA credit, the investors have begun to lose faith in the US assets and are looking for some other greener pasture like BRICS.
If the US defaults on its debt obligations, that would be nothing short of a catastrophic bankruptcy with dollar losing its role as reserve currency.
No wonder Donald is hyper-ventilating about BRICS and tariffs but seems unwilling to tackle these issues as the Epstein scandal continues to grow bigger and bigger.
With Epstein’s ghost breathing down his neck, Donald would rather let the three factors blow up into raging controversies just to distract the news cycles from the Epstein scandal as the revelations would be akin to a nuke going off.
All the three factors mentioned above – The BRICS, reversing some of the disastrous provisions of the Big Beautiful Bill and the Trade Wars – can be handled skillfully, but skills are awfully missing in the Trump administration.
An oft-cited quote of Sun-Tzu, a Chinese military strategist, comes to mind: “A vain man will burn down the country to rule over the ashes”.
The quote fits Donald to a tee.
Unfortunately, it seems, the King Dollar is going be a casualty – a collateral damage of “The Epstein Files”.
(PS: At the time of writing this article, Wall Street Journal now has dropped the biggest story that Department of Justice told Trump in May about his name being all over the Epstein files.
This is an atomic level story. How this plays out – whether Trump resigns or forced out – is going to be quite interesting. If he resigns, he faces criminal prosecution. And if he stays, the country will be paralyzed.
Interesting turn of events, indeed.)
