I am not a chess
player, so I do not know any chess terminology. But the term, “Turkish Gambit”,
is being tossed around by commentators to describe Putin’s recent cancellation
of South Stream and simultaneously signing of Russia-Turkey pipeline deal – an
extension of the blue stream pipeline that already supplies natural gas to
turkey.
This is how Merriam-Webster’s
dictionary describes gambit
gam·bit
noun \ˈgam-bət\
: a planned
series of moves at the beginning of a game of chess
: something done
or said in order to gain an advantage or to produce a desired result
Full Definition
of GAMBIT
1
: a chess opening
in which a player risks one or more pawns or a minor piece to gain an
advantage in position
2
a (1) : a remark
intended to start a conversation or make a telling point (2) : topic
b : a calculated
move : stratagem
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Both the
cancellation of South Stream project and the Russia-Turkey deal have sent
shockwaves throughout the western world. As is the Russian wont – Russia does
not issue verbal threats, they just act – President Putin dropped a bombshell on
his recent visit to Turkey by announcing the shelving of south stream pipeline,
citing Bulgaria’s unconstructive attitude, and simultaneously inking a deal
with Turkey to bring the gas to the shores of Turkey. The gas will then be transited
to other European customers, bypassing troublesome Ukrainian pipeline and the
attitude of EU, i.e. it is hell bent on preventing the pipeline. No wonder,
Russia finally decided that enough is enough and shelved the South Stream
project.
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………
At the news
conference on December 1, the Russian leader said: “Taking into account the
European Commission’s position, which is not conducive to implementing this
(South Stream) project, taking into account the fact that we have only
recently received permission from relevant authorities in the Netherlands —
granted, it was a positive decision, and taking into account that we still
have not received permission from Bulgaria, we feel Russia cannot continue
implementing this project under the existing circumstances.”
“I mean that we
now need to start the construction of this pipeline in the Black Sea, but we
cannot do that until we have Bulgaria’s permission. I think it’s clear to
everyone that it would be ridiculous to start the construction in the sea,
reach the Bulgarian shore and stop. So we are forced to reconsider our
participation in this project,” Putin said.
…….
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South Stream
pipeline was meant to bypass completely troublesome Ukraine which was always
causing hurdles in the delivery of Russian gas to consumers in Europe. Knowing
Ukraine’s attitude, Russia had devised a solution to this problem by designing
two major pipelines – Nord Stream and South Stream. Nord Stream pipeline
already supplies gas to Germany. The South Stream pipeline, when completed, would
have completely bypassed Ukraine and provided reliable gas transit to south European
consumers.
In addition, the
pipeline would have also provided a boost to the economies of the nations it
traversed in the form of transit fees and jobs. But the mule-headed approach of
EC - at the behest of US and eager to confront Russia, whom they perceive as a
threat to their relentless march for the world domination and preservation of
the dollar as the world reserve currency - scuttled it.
Again from the same article….
…..
Putin also told
journalists that “with regard to South Stream, we feel that the European
Commission’s position was unconstructive. It’s not that the European
Commission has helped implement this project — it’s that we see obstacles being created in its implementation.
If Europe does not want to implement it, then it will not be implemented.”
……
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The South Stream
pipeline was supposed to traverse Bulgaria. But by bending to the pressure of
EU - and a desire to please Brussels – the Bulgarian Government kept on hedging
on the issue. But never did they realize that Russia could, finally, say enough
is enough and quash the whole project.
The pipeline would
still be built under black sea, but instead of going towards Bulgaria, it will
now go to Turkey which stands to benefit immensely. In addition, a transit gas
hub will be built on the Turkish-Greek border which will supply the gas to
European customers.
The geopolitical
ramifications of this deal are enormous and will be felt throughout Europe.
Let us consider
Turkey First.
For Turkey, the
pipeline is a major victory.
First, it
fulfills Turkey’s desire to be energy transit hub. It also knocks the hope of
building Qatari gas pipeline through Syria to Turkey for distribution to European
consumers. In addition, Qatari pipeline through Syria cannot be built as long
as Assad is in power. The western nations are trying to get rid of him by
supporting the so-called Syrian rebels; many of whom are hard-core members of
Al-Qaeda. Now that Turkey’s desire of being an energy transit hub is getting
fulfilled, it remains to be seen how it reacts towards Assad regime now.
Second, in spite of
being a NATO member, Turkey’s aspiration to join EU has been thwarted by
various European nations on one pretext or another since 1967. The signing of
the deal with Putin gives Turkey a chance to tell European nations to go pound
the sand.
Third, Turkish
Prime Minister Recep Erdogan, who has been relentlessly vilified in western
press lately, has not taken criticism against him lightly and feels outraged. On
November 26, just four days after Biden’s visit to Turkey, Erdogan was quoted
as saying that he is “against impertinence, recklessness and endless demands”
coming from “12,000 kilometers away”, an oblique reference to USA. The deal
with Putin was a way of showing diplomatic middle finger to US and EU.
Fourth, apart from
the pipeline, Russia has also agreed to develop and build the entire nuclear
power sector of Turkey. To see the reaction on the faces of those clueless eggheads
and boneheads, the so-called intellectual heavyweights of EU and US to this
deal would be priceless.
And, finally,
countries like Italy, Slovakia, and Croatia etc. would have to take their gas
from Turkey. It would be hard to imagine the contortions on the faces of those
feckless EU leaders that would come from having to take the gas from Turkey. It
is very difficult to feel sorry for them. Their own stupid actions are
responsible for their misery.
Now let us consider
the Russian angle.
First, it solves
their perpetual headache in the form of troublesome Ukraine and provides a mean
to supply their European customers uninterrupted.
Second, by turning
the pipeline towards Turkey, Russia has shown what kind of economic suicide EU
nations are committing by acting not as a sovereign state but as a colony of
Brussels and Washington and carrying out the diktats of EU which are
detrimental to their nation’s well-being. The price of this stupidity will ultimately
be borne by their economies in form of lost jobs and revenue.
Third, the move
thus could lead to revolt against EU and its subsequent implosion - a
necessity. Hungary has defied western pressure and refused to impose sanctions
on Russia. Austria has also refused to impose sanctions on Russia. Already
there are grumblings by businesses in Germany against Merkel who is beginning
to find herself in hot waters. The same is true with France. By reneging on the
Mistral deal, Hollande is now facing not only massive penalties but loss of
international face also. In addition, the ship-workers building the mistral
ships are going to be out of work, thus exacerbating the already bleak
unemployment situation.
Fourth and this is
a wild card, if the pipeline results in Turkey’s lessening of its opposition to
Assad, it would mean Russia scoring the biggest geopolitical coup.
And finally – this again
is a wild card, given the fed-up attitude of the Turks regarding NATO and US
(as seen by recent anti-US demonstrations), and the independence showed by the
Turks for the last 10 years (starting with 2003 Iraq war which they refused to
participate in), Russia might try to orient them slowly towards SCO. Again the
word is -might. But, with a chance for a major independent role on the
international scene and not as a vassal one of NATO, who knows, the Turks might
even go for it.
And, the biggest
losers are the clueless, US, EU and NATO leaders, who have been punched in the
face by the Russians. They tried to force Russia to agree to their demands of
third energy package by holding South Stream pipeline hostage but it did not
work. Their unconstructive attitude has blown up in their faces spectacularly.
Ukraine has also seen
its role reduced to zero. Since the pipeline will go through Turkey, Ukraine has
lost all the leverage it had over transit of Russian gas and, thus, its
importance to EU.
But to top it all,
Putin has shown countries of EU what their membership in EU really means.
Again from the same article….
….
“Incidentally, my
Bulgarian colleagues have always told me that whatever happens, they would
certainly implement South Stream, because this corresponds to their national
interests. But here, unfortunately, this did not come to pass,” the Russian
president said.
“If Bulgaria is deprived of the
opportunity to act as a sovereign nation, then they should at least
demand money from the European Commission to compensate for their lost
profits, because direct revenues to Bulgaria’s budget alone would have been
no less than 400 million Euros a year. But ultimately, this is also the
choice of our Bulgarian partners; it seems they have certain obligations.
Still, that’s not our business - it’s our partners’ business,” he said.
[The emphasis is
mine].
………
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No wonder, the
western MSM is in such a twist, they do not know what to say and are putting
out crap pieces in media which would even make a contortionist jealous.
A Google search
would bring multitude of articles but just a couple of links would suffice.
Here is a sample:
And, here is
another one.
Read it and laugh.
Since US, EU and
NATO are still not able to comprehend what has hit them; the only solution they
seek is more sanctions which are becoming more and more laughable. Rest of the
non-NATO world sees through their antics and ignores them by forging new
alliances and financial systems – like BRICS and its Bank - and leaving the
oppressive but slowly dying Petrodollar system behind – a system US, EU and
NATO are trying to preserve.
And, that seems to
be the meaning of this “Turkish Gambit” – a geo-political earthquake of
magnitude 9.0.
