Fall of Roman – err, US Empire..!?

Historians in the future writing about the decline of the US Empire would surely point to the period of September – October 2015 when the terminal decline of the empire began.

In my previous articles, I touched upon this topic – that of the beginning of the fall of King Dollar. But I never thought that the “main” event – eagerly awaited and genuinely wished decline of the “exceptional and bankrupt in every way” empire – would occur at such a head spinning pace. Amazing transformation in a very short period of time!

There are many factors that can explain the slow beginning of the decline, but I would like to focus on the three main factors: USA’s domestic economy – specifically employment situation – and politics, Federal Reserve policy, and finally, assertiveness of the other world powers getting tired of utter lawlessness exhibited by the US-UK hegemonic Anglo axis in the world.

Let us start with some debt situation.  This is the screen shot of the national debt clock as of October 21, 2015 11:36am. 

Pretty grim, isn’t it?

But this is not all. There is also the employment, or rather unemployment, situation which is absolutely worse. The official statistics would like you believe that the unemployment rate is at 5.1%. That means the economy is inching closer to the mark where it can be said to be humming with full employment.

But that is not so. September 2015 was brutal regarding job creation.

Job creation misses big in September By Jeff Cox, Friday, 2 Oct 2015 …. The U.S. economy created 142,000 jobs in September, a number that missed expectations and could cool expectations that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates soon. Economists had been expecting the report to show 203,000 new jobs, from the downwardly revised 136,000 in August (from the originally reported 173,000). "Disappointing across the board," said Brad McMillan, Chief Investment Officer at Commonwealth Financial Network. "This is not what the markets were looking for, this is not what pretty much anybody expected." ……..

In addition, a number of major firms like Microsoft, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Wal-Mart, Twitter etc. have announced layoffs; the biggest one being HP that announced 30,000 pink slips in September.

In spite of such poor record of job creations and massive job cuts, the official unemployment rate has fallen to 5.1%. How is that possible, nobody knows and nobody is buying it either.

What If America's Unemployment Rate Is Really Wrong? By Ana Swanson, MAR 31, 2015 ….. That rate has fallen dramatically from 10 percent immediately following the financial crisis and is now nearly on par with pre-recession rates of 4.5-5 percent. But what if these figures are hiding an uncomfortable reality about the economy? This is the view taken by two highly respected economists, David Blanchflower of Dartmouth College and Andrew Levin of the International Monetary Fund, in a new paper published March 19. Blanchflower and Levin argue that the way the U.S. is calculating its unemployment figure obscures a significant amount of slack in the labor market, and that, if computed more accurately, the true unemployment rate in the U.S. could be as high as 7 to 9 percent. ….

No wonder such grim economic situation is causing an increasein the number of people – who are unable to make ends meet - on food stamps.

Which brings me to the most important point: The Federal Reserve’s toying with the idea of raising interest rates.

With domestic economy blasting such warning sirens – dismal job creation, rising number of people on food stamps, layoffs etc. – why would Fed even talk about raising interest rates baffles my mind. The constant fiddling with the unemployment figures, daily droning on the TV by economic pundits citing month-to-month retail sales and going crazy over a small up tick in retail sale as a sign of strengthening economy, talking about some mega mergers and acquisitions etc., all these seemed geared to make justification for raising the interest rate.

I feel that the real reason for trying to raise the interest rate has to do with the decline in the attractiveness of dollar to foreign buyers who are not rushing headlong into the currency which is in reality the single-most worst currency in the world.

From my earlier article…

… Even Alan Greenspan, former Federal Reserve Chairman who is intimately familiar with bubbles – Dotcom and Sub-prime mortgage bubbles,  and which blew up spectacularly with the latter almost bringing down the world financial system in 2008 – is baffled by the Fed’s incessant talk of rate hike. With China and Russia dumping the treasuries at record pace, the pressure seems to be mounting on the Feds to make them more attractive and hence the rush to raise the rates citing all sorts of questionable statistics. The dollar, the reserve currency of the world – and exactly this excuse utilized by US Justice Department to meddle in the sovereign affairs of other countries – thus seems to be getting unattractive day by day. And, President Putin - along with President Xi – seems to be doing everything he can to make it completely unattractive and fully dethrone it. Putin says dump the dollar Russian President Vladimir Putin has drafted a bill that aims to eliminate the US dollar and the Euro from trade between CIS countries. …….

Two notable things – among all the manipulated data – have happened recently: Wal-Mart slashed its earning forecast for 2017 by 12% - a huge number. Now a number of industries depend on Wal-Mart to fuel their growth. If Wal-Mart is declining, then it is going to affect other industries as well and the rest of the picture becomes clearer to everyone.

The other news item was this: Illinoiswill delay pension payment because of cash shortage.  Let that sink in the mind: Illinois has practically run out of money. Could other states follow in its path? Given the current economic situation, there is always a possibility. Most recent example was California during 2008 meltdown crisis when it was forced to issue IOUs.

Then there is usual debt ceiling drama being played on the Capitol Hill. Talking heads on TV and pundits in media are all lamenting the delay about raising the debt limit. Secretary of Treasury Jack Lew is warning that the nation would run out of money by November 3. That would cause uncertainty for many folks like social security recipients, Medicaid, Medicare, food stamp recipients, and practically everyone else who depends on some sort of assistance from the government.

I think, the drama would end at the eleventh hour as usual, but this time, things are different. With Speaker Boehner retiring at the end of October and house still unable to coalesce around a nominee who would be acceptable to conservative wing of the party, quite a bit of suspense is in the air. And, this bodes ill for the credit rating of the USA.

On the other hand, raising the debt limit would mean going from 18.6 trillion to - maybe - 19 trillion in debt. And, this will keep on going forever. This brings us back to the screen shot of the debt clock pictured at the beginning and the neat little statistics displayed under it. There is no chance in hell that this debt can ever be repaid.

The situation has reached a point where the US government is simply not in a position to cut back on the assistance – welfare, social security, unemployment insurance, food stamps etc. – to recipients. A cut back in any category would simply bring social chaos which would make Ferguson and Baltimore riots look like minor skirmishes. The empire is literally in the death throes internally.

The situation on the international scene is also not looking good. The same crowd – Kerry et al. – that was running around displaying hegemonic attitude and trying to conjure up the cold war 2.0 by inventing myth of Russian aggression in the wake of Ukrainian crisis has suddenly found itself becoming a pariah on the international scene – being forced to withdraw from many fronts.

There are number of issues. I will concentrate on main ones only.

First, the Ukrainian fiasco – which resulted from an attempt to lure Ukraine into NATO orbit by installing a Russo-phobic regime – has spectacularly blown up on the face of the arrogant Washington crowd.

Not only the crowd – Obama administration’s buddies – that is ruling Ukraine has proven itself to be utterly incompetent but also is openly fascist, morally bankrupt, and corrupt to a degree far greater than the Yanukovych government.

With the current events going as they are, the prospect for Ukraine to remain as a state appear to be bleak. Though it may want to implement Minsk 2.0, Poroshenko regime faces strongest possible opposition from the neo-Nazi “Right Sector” which has threatened another “Maidan”. Its economy is also imploding. The deadline for paying back Russia $3 Billion in loan is fast approaching. If Ukraine defaults on it, Ukraine’s credit-worthiness would simply take a fatal hit. And, possibly, along with that the unity of the Ukrainian state too, as the resulting chaos – both social and economic – would simply lead to its fragmentation.

The European governments, which were forced by USA to impose sanctions on Russia – and support the fascist, neo-Nazi regime in Ukraine – against their wishes, are now singing a different tune. Many of them have suffered economically and are now raising the voices to lift them. The despicable behavior of the regime and their supporters has caused revulsions among many nations. The Dutch are actively voting in referendum to prevent the Ukraine from joining European Association.

Second – and, perhaps, the most pivotal event which marked the irreversible decline of the empire – is the Russian intervention in Syria which has upended the political calculations and machinations of many unsavory – US friendly – regimes of the Middle East.

The Syrian crisis has many facets: First, it is the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia for the dominance of the Middle East. Iran is supporting Alawite government which is Shia while Gulf monarchies are backing terrorists – Sunni – who are actively trying to overthrow Alawite government of Syria.

Then there is also a question of Qatari gas pipeline to Turkey through Syria which is intended to be an instrument which would break Gazprom’s hold on European Market. As long as Assad’s government stays in power, there is no chance for that pipeline to come to fruition.

Turkey, which has facilitated the flow of ISIS terrorists into Syria, also has an axe to grind. By putting a façade of trying to fight IS terrorists, Turkey is stepping up its campaign against Kurdish militants to prevent the establishment of independent Kurdish state.

And, the empire, which claims to be fighting terrorists – in name only – is actively supplying arms and munitions to the so-called “moderate” terrorists – an oxymoronic terminology since a terrorist is always a terrorist. Many of the so-called “moderate” terrorists trained by the empire have actively switched sides and joined hands with ISIS “lock, stock and barrel” – literally.

That the ensuing carnage has caused multiple human tragedies and a largest exodus of people is irrelevant to the empire which is hell-bent on removing Assad from power. It is also not concerned with the simple fact that the removal of Assad from power would cause the ISIS killers to fill the vacuum in Damascus as long as they get to build their pipeline through Syria to Turkey and thereby to Europe. To the empire, the end justifies the means.

But President Putin has put a stop to the murderous games of the empire – all disguised under the cloak of “Democracy and Human Rights” – by actively participating militarily in Syria – legally and at the invitation of the sovereign Syrian government.

Not only Russia has achieved what the empire and its merry band of hypocrites could not – rather, did not want to – in one year of fruitless bombing, but its stock also has gone up in the Arab world – an apoplectic situation for the empire.

By taking command of the operation, Russia has effectively booted the empire from the Middle East. And, the volley of “Kalibre” cruise missiles fired from the Caspian Sea flotilla sent the message loud and clear to the empire: That it is time to go. And, go it did.

Even the allies of the empire – now sensing the change of guards in the Middle East – are now making a beeline to Moscow to ‘confer’ with Putin on how to solve Syrian crisis, an absolutely humiliating development for the Empire.

Not being satisfied with the fiascos in Ukraine, Syria etc., the US and its allies are now training their sights on China. The flashpoint is China’s man-made island – located in the midst of busiest shipping lane in the South China Sea. By taking over contested reefs – on which China claims its sovereignty but which are claimed by Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Philippines etc. – China has added ports, runways, command and control center to this man-made island.

USA has said that it does not recognize the sovereignty of China over this man-made island and is threatening to sail its naval ships within 12 nautical miles of the island.

On the other hand, China is threatening that any ship encroaching upon its “territorial” waters will be fired upon.

How this standoff would develop is anybody’s guess. But with China holding about $1.2 trillion dollar worth of treasuries – which it has been getting rid of lately and hence the scramble by the Feds to raise the interest rates as they are simply becoming unattractive – it does not even have to fire a single shot. All it has to do is off-load the entire treasury holdings and the resulting social chaos would cause the collapse of the Empire on the spot. The Empire is aware of this danger but is still trying to provoke the situation.

And, if the shooting war breaks out then, how the war would develop is anybody’s guess. China not only possesses formidable air force and navy, it also possesses DF-21Dcarrier killer missiles, a game changer as it would pose a significant threat to US navy against which it has no defense.

The USA is faced with a hard decision: whether to sail or not? If it does, then there is always a danger of the resulting war developing into a nuclear one. And, if it does not, then it risks losing not only the trusts of its allies but also the loss of its status as a super-power.

Any way, the change is coming in the world order. The utter lawlessness and complete disregard shown by the hegemon to the international laws, violations of  the sovereignties of various nations, overthrowing of “unfriendly” regimes through “color revolutions”, misuse of dollar’s status as the reserve currency – along with international institutions like World Bank, IMF – to browbeat nations into doing its bidding etc., has finally met its match.

Putin alluded to this lawlessness nature of US not once but twice. First during his Valdai club speech in Sochi 2014, helambasted US for showing absolute contempt for the world order.

But his speech during the recent UN General Assembly was more explicit: He simply stated that the current lawlessnesssituations will not be tolerated.

From Putin’s Speech to UN General Assembly 2015 ……. such an honest and frank approach of Russia has been recently used as a pretext to accuse it of its growing ambitions, as if those who say it have no ambitions at all. However, it's not about Russia's ambitions, dear colleagues, but about the recognition of the fact that we can no longer tolerate the current state of affairs in the world. What we actually propose is to be guided by common values and common interests, rather than ambitions. (The emphasize supplied) ……

The days of running rampant are getting over. Launch of air-strikes on rebels in Syria – ISIS and US-backed “moderates” – simply drove this point home.

But the empire, despite knowing that it has lost suddenly all the leverage, is still exhibiting tendencies of the wounded and cornered animal – hissing, growling and lashing out.

The Empire’s military arm – NATO – is still carrying out military exercises in Europe and Mediterranean involving thousands of men, several aircrafts and naval vessels. Its vassal Poland is talking about deploying F-22 raptors in order to frighten Russia. NATO leaders are talking about the “invented” Russian threat and conjuring up the “imaginary” threat – a throwback to cold war era – of Russian menace. (I wonder why NATO is still there when Warsaw Pact is no longer in existence.) It is still talking about extending – “unilateral” and mindless – sanctions on Russia and forcing its European partners to participate in it against their wishes.

But all this is slowly falling apart. The world community has woken up to the evil that was perpetrated by the “exceptional” empire for the last 25 years after the fall of Soviet Union. They are beginning to question, distrust and oppose the empire.

All empires eventually come to an end. That is the law of nature. In the case of “exceptional” empire, I could not help but notice that it has many similarities to the fall of one of the mightiest empire in history – Roman Empire. Here are some of the causes that led to the demise of Roman Empire….

……….. The Major Causes for the Fall of the Roman Empire Antagonism between the Senate and the Emperor Decline in Morals Political Corruption and the Praetorian Guard Fast expansion of the Empire Constant Wars and Heavy Military Spending Barbarian Knowledge of Roman Military Tactics Failing Economy Unemployment of the Working Classes (The Plebs) The 'Mob' and the cost of the 'Games' Decline in Ethics and Values Slave Labor Natural Disasters Christianity Barbarian Invasion ………..

Many of the causes like political gridlock, decline in morals, ethics and values, constant wars, military expenditure etc., simply apply to the current empire.

And, the Empire has become aware of its loss of prestige. It knows that its days of bullying and violating sovereignty of nations of the world are coming to an end. Eventually, it would have to live in a new world order based on multi-polarity and “respect” for international law. Whether it will acquiesce to this absolutely different “new” world order, not the kind which it had envisaged for itself – “Wolfowitz” doctrine – with Empire being on top and dictating terms to other nations in the world, remains to be seen.

No wonder, the doomsday clock has been moved closer to 3minutes to midnight.