Historians in the future
writing about the decline of the US Empire would surely point to the period of September
– October 2015 when the terminal decline of the empire began.
In my previous articles,
I touched upon this topic – that of the beginning of the fall of King Dollar. But
I never thought that the “main” event – eagerly awaited and genuinely wished decline
of the “exceptional and bankrupt in every way” empire – would occur at such a head
spinning pace. Amazing transformation in a very short period of time!
There are many factors
that can explain the slow beginning of the decline, but I would like to focus
on the three main factors: USA’s domestic economy –
specifically employment situation – and politics, Federal Reserve policy, and
finally, assertiveness of the other world powers getting tired of utter lawlessness
exhibited by the US-UK hegemonic Anglo axis in the world.
Let us start with some
debt situation. This is the screen shot
of the national debt clock as of October 21, 2015 11:36am.
Pretty grim, isn’t it?
But this is not all. There
is also the employment, or rather unemployment, situation which is absolutely
worse. The official statistics would like you believe that the unemployment
rate is at 5.1%. That means the economy is inching closer to the mark where it
can be said to be humming with full employment.
But that is not so. September
2015 was brutal regarding job creation.
By Jeff Cox, Friday, 2 Oct 2015
….
The U.S. economy created
142,000 jobs in September, a number that missed expectations and could cool
expectations that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates soon.
Economists had been
expecting the report to show 203,000 new jobs, from the downwardly revised
136,000 in August (from the originally reported 173,000).
"Disappointing
across the board," said Brad McMillan, Chief Investment Officer at
Commonwealth Financial Network. "This is not what the markets were
looking for, this is not what pretty much anybody expected."
……..
|
In addition, a number of
major firms like Microsoft, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Wal-Mart, Twitter
etc. have announced layoffs; the biggest one being HP that announced 30,000
pink slips in September.
In spite of such poor
record of job creations and massive job cuts, the official unemployment rate
has fallen to 5.1%. How is that possible, nobody knows and nobody is buying it
either.
By Ana Swanson,
MAR 31, 2015
…..
That rate has fallen
dramatically from 10 percent immediately following the financial crisis and
is now nearly on par with pre-recession rates of 4.5-5 percent.
But what if these figures
are hiding an uncomfortable reality about the economy? This is the view taken
by two highly respected economists, David Blanchflower of Dartmouth College and Andrew Levin of
the International Monetary Fund, in a new paper published March 19. Blanchflower and Levin argue that the way
the U.S. is calculating its
unemployment figure obscures a significant amount of slack in the labor
market, and that, if computed more accurately, the true unemployment rate in
the U.S. could be as high as 7
to 9 percent.
….
|
Which brings me to the
most important point: The Federal Reserve’s toying with the idea of raising
interest rates.
With domestic economy
blasting such warning sirens – dismal job creation, rising number of people on
food stamps, layoffs etc. – why would Fed even talk about raising interest
rates baffles my mind. The constant fiddling with the unemployment figures, daily
droning on the TV by economic pundits citing month-to-month retail sales and
going crazy over a small up tick in retail sale as a sign of strengthening
economy, talking about some mega mergers and acquisitions etc., all these seemed
geared to make justification for raising the interest rate.
I feel that the real
reason for trying to raise the interest rate has to do with the decline in the attractiveness
of dollar to foreign buyers who are not rushing headlong into the currency
which is in reality the single-most worst currency in the world.
From my earlier article…
…
Even Alan Greenspan,
former Federal Reserve Chairman who is intimately familiar with bubbles –
Dotcom and Sub-prime mortgage bubbles,
and which blew up spectacularly with the latter almost bringing down
the world financial system in 2008 – is baffled by the Fed’s incessant talk
of rate hike.
With China and Russia dumping the
treasuries at record pace, the pressure seems to be mounting on the Feds to
make them more attractive and hence the rush to raise the rates citing all
sorts of questionable statistics.
The dollar, the
reserve currency of the world – and exactly this excuse utilized by US
Justice Department to meddle in the sovereign affairs of other countries –
thus seems to be getting unattractive day by day.
And, President Putin -
along with President Xi – seems to be doing everything he can to make it
completely unattractive and fully dethrone it.
Russian President
Vladimir Putin has drafted a bill that aims to eliminate the US dollar and
the Euro from trade between CIS countries.
…….
|
Two notable things –
among all the manipulated data – have happened recently: Wal-Mart slashed its
earning forecast for 2017 by 12% - a huge number. Now a number of industries
depend on Wal-Mart to fuel their growth. If Wal-Mart is declining, then it is
going to affect other industries as well and the rest of the picture becomes clearer
to everyone.
The other news item was
this: Illinoiswill delay pension payment because of cash shortage. Let that sink in the mind: Illinois has practically run out
of money. Could other states follow in its path? Given the current economic
situation, there is always a possibility. Most recent example was California during 2008 meltdown
crisis when it was forced to issue IOUs.
Then there is usual debt
ceiling drama being played on the Capitol Hill. Talking heads on TV and pundits
in media are all lamenting the delay about raising the debt limit. Secretary of
Treasury Jack Lew is warning that the nation would run out of money by November
3. That would cause uncertainty for many folks like social security recipients,
Medicaid, Medicare, food stamp recipients, and practically everyone else who depends
on some sort of assistance from the government.
I think, the drama would
end at the eleventh hour as usual, but this time, things are different. With
Speaker Boehner retiring at the end of October and house still unable to
coalesce around a nominee who would be acceptable to conservative wing of the
party, quite a bit of suspense is in the air. And, this bodes ill for the credit
rating of the USA.
On the other hand,
raising the debt limit would mean going from 18.6 trillion to - maybe - 19
trillion in debt. And, this will keep on going forever. This brings us back to
the screen shot of the debt clock pictured at the beginning and the neat little
statistics displayed under it. There is no chance in hell that this debt can
ever be repaid.
The situation has
reached a point where the US government is simply
not in a position to cut back on the assistance – welfare, social security,
unemployment insurance, food stamps etc. – to recipients. A cut back in any
category would simply bring social chaos which would make Ferguson and Baltimore riots look like minor
skirmishes. The empire is literally in the death throes internally.
The situation on the
international scene is also not looking good. The same crowd – Kerry et al. –
that was running around displaying hegemonic attitude and trying to conjure up
the cold war 2.0 by inventing myth of Russian aggression in the wake of
Ukrainian crisis has suddenly found itself becoming a pariah on the
international scene – being forced to withdraw from many fronts.
There are number of issues.
I will concentrate on main ones only.
First, the Ukrainian
fiasco – which resulted from an attempt to lure Ukraine into NATO orbit by
installing a Russo-phobic regime – has spectacularly blown up on the face of
the arrogant Washington crowd.
Not only the crowd –
Obama administration’s buddies – that is ruling Ukraine has proven itself to be
utterly incompetent but also is openly fascist, morally bankrupt, and corrupt
to a degree far greater than the Yanukovych government.
With the current events
going as they are, the prospect for Ukraine to remain as a state
appear to be bleak. Though it may want to implement Minsk 2.0, Poroshenko regime
faces strongest possible opposition from the neo-Nazi “Right Sector” which has
threatened another “Maidan”. Its economy is also imploding. The deadline for
paying back Russia $3 Billion in loan is
fast approaching. If Ukraine defaults on it, Ukraine’s credit-worthiness would
simply take a fatal hit. And, possibly, along with that the unity of the
Ukrainian state too, as the resulting chaos – both social and economic – would
simply lead to its fragmentation.
The European
governments, which were forced by USA to impose sanctions on Russia – and support the
fascist, neo-Nazi regime in Ukraine – against their wishes,
are now singing a different tune. Many of them have suffered economically and
are now raising the voices to lift them. The despicable behavior of the regime
and their supporters has caused revulsions among many nations. The Dutch are
actively voting in referendum to prevent the Ukraine from joining European
Association.
Second – and, perhaps,
the most pivotal event which marked the irreversible decline of the empire – is
the Russian intervention in Syria which has upended the
political calculations and machinations of many unsavory – US friendly – regimes of
the Middle East.
The Syrian crisis has
many facets: First, it is the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia for the dominance of
the Middle East. Iran is supporting Alawite government
which is Shia while Gulf monarchies are backing terrorists – Sunni – who are
actively trying to overthrow Alawite government of Syria.
Then there is also a
question of Qatari gas pipeline to Turkey through Syria which is intended to be
an instrument which would break Gazprom’s hold on European Market. As long as
Assad’s government stays in power, there is no chance for that pipeline to come
to fruition.
Turkey, which has facilitated
the flow of ISIS terrorists into Syria, also has an axe to
grind. By putting a façade of trying to fight IS terrorists, Turkey is stepping up its campaign
against Kurdish militants to prevent the establishment of independent Kurdish
state.
And, the empire, which
claims to be fighting terrorists – in name only – is actively supplying arms
and munitions to the so-called “moderate” terrorists – an oxymoronic
terminology since a terrorist is always a terrorist. Many of the so-called
“moderate” terrorists trained by the empire have actively switched sides and
joined hands with ISIS “lock, stock and barrel” – literally.
That the ensuing carnage
has caused multiple human tragedies and a largest exodus of people is
irrelevant to the empire which is hell-bent on removing Assad from power. It is
also not concerned with the simple fact that the removal of Assad from power
would cause the ISIS killers to fill the vacuum in Damascus as long as they get to
build their pipeline through Syria to Turkey and thereby to Europe. To the empire, the end
justifies the means.
But President Putin has
put a stop to the murderous games of the empire – all disguised under the cloak
of “Democracy and Human Rights” – by actively participating militarily in Syria – legally and at the
invitation of the sovereign Syrian government.
Not only Russia has
achieved what the empire and its merry band of hypocrites could not – rather,
did not want to – in one year of fruitless bombing, but its stock also has gone
up in the Arab world – an apoplectic situation for the empire.
By taking command of the
operation, Russia has effectively booted
the empire from the Middle East. And, the volley of “Kalibre”
cruise missiles fired from the Caspian Sea flotilla sent the
message loud and clear to the empire: That it is time to go. And, go it did.
Even the allies of the
empire – now sensing the change of guards in the Middle East – are now making a beeline
to Moscow to ‘confer’ with Putin on how to solve Syrian
crisis, an absolutely humiliating development for the Empire.
Not being satisfied with
the fiascos in Ukraine, Syria etc., the US and its allies are now
training their sights on China. The flashpoint is China’s man-made island –
located in the midst of busiest shipping lane in the South China Sea. By taking over
contested reefs – on which China claims its sovereignty but which are claimed
by Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Philippines etc. – China has added ports,
runways, command and control center to this man-made island.
USA has said that it does
not recognize the sovereignty of China over this man-made
island and is threatening to sail its naval ships within 12 nautical miles of
the island.
On the other hand, China is threatening that any
ship encroaching upon its “territorial” waters will be fired upon.
How this standoff would
develop is anybody’s guess. But with China holding about $1.2
trillion dollar worth of treasuries – which it has been getting rid of lately
and hence the scramble by the Feds to raise the interest rates as they are
simply becoming unattractive – it does not even have to fire a single shot. All
it has to do is off-load the entire treasury holdings and the resulting social
chaos would cause the collapse of the Empire on the spot. The Empire is aware
of this danger but is still trying to provoke the situation.
And, if the shooting war
breaks out then, how the war would develop is anybody’s guess. China not only
possesses formidable air force and navy, it also possesses DF-21Dcarrier killer missiles, a game changer as it would pose a significant threat
to US navy against which it has no defense.
The USA is faced with a hard
decision: whether to sail or not? If it does, then there is always a danger of
the resulting war developing into a nuclear one. And, if it does not, then it
risks losing not only the trusts of its allies but also the loss of its status
as a super-power.
Any way, the change is
coming in the world order. The utter lawlessness and complete disregard shown
by the hegemon to the international laws, violations of the sovereignties of various nations,
overthrowing of “unfriendly” regimes through “color revolutions”, misuse of dollar’s
status as the reserve currency – along with international institutions like
World Bank, IMF – to browbeat nations into doing its bidding etc., has finally
met its match.
…….
such an honest and
frank approach of Russia has been recently
used as a pretext to accuse it of its growing ambitions, as if those who say
it have no ambitions at all.
However, it's not
about Russia's ambitions, dear
colleagues, but about the recognition of the fact that we can no longer
tolerate the current state of affairs in the world. What we actually propose
is to be guided by common values and common interests, rather than ambitions.
(The emphasize supplied)
……
|
The days of running
rampant are getting over. Launch of air-strikes on rebels in Syria – ISIS and US-backed
“moderates” – simply drove this point home.
But the empire, despite
knowing that it has lost suddenly all the leverage, is still exhibiting
tendencies of the wounded and cornered animal – hissing, growling and lashing
out.
The Empire’s military
arm – NATO – is still carrying out military exercises in Europe and Mediterranean involving thousands of
men, several aircrafts and naval vessels. Its vassal Poland is talking about
deploying F-22 raptors in order to frighten Russia. NATO leaders are
talking about the “invented” Russian threat and conjuring up the “imaginary”
threat – a throwback to cold war era – of Russian menace. (I wonder why NATO is
still there when Warsaw Pact is no longer in existence.) It is still talking
about extending – “unilateral” and mindless – sanctions on Russia and forcing its
European partners to participate in it against their wishes.
But all this is slowly
falling apart. The world community has woken up to the evil that was
perpetrated by the “exceptional” empire for the last 25 years after the fall of
Soviet
Union. They are beginning to question, distrust and oppose the empire.
All empires eventually
come to an end. That is the law of nature. In the case of “exceptional” empire,
I could not help but notice that it has many similarities to the fall of one of
the mightiest empire in history – Roman Empire. Here are some of the
causes that led to the demise of Roman Empire….
………..
- Antagonism between the Senate and
the Emperor
- Decline in Morals
- Political Corruption and the
Praetorian Guard
- Fast expansion of the Empire
- Constant Wars and Heavy Military
Spending
- Barbarian Knowledge of Roman
Military Tactics
- Failing Economy
- Unemployment of the Working Classes
(The Plebs)
- The 'Mob' and the cost of the
'Games'
- Decline in Ethics and Values
- Slave Labor
- Natural Disasters
- Christianity
- Barbarian Invasion
………..
|
Many of the causes like
political gridlock, decline in morals, ethics and values, constant wars,
military expenditure etc., simply apply to the current empire.
And, the Empire has
become aware of its loss of prestige. It knows that its days of bullying and
violating sovereignty of nations of the world are coming to an end.
Eventually, it would have to live in a new world order based on multi-polarity
and “respect” for international law. Whether it will acquiesce to this absolutely
different “new” world order, not the kind which it had envisaged for itself –
“Wolfowitz” doctrine – with Empire being on top and dictating terms to other
nations in the world, remains to be seen.